A modified two-process Knox test for investigating the relationship between law enforcement opioid seizures and overdoses

Recent research has shown an association between monthly law enforcement drug seizure events and accidental overdose deaths using cross-sectional data in a single state, whereby increased seizures correlated with more deaths. In this study, we conduct statistical analysis of street-level on seizures, along fatal non-fatal events, to determine possible micro-level causal associations opioid-related overdoses. For purpose, introduce novel, modified two-process Knox test that controls for self-excitation measure clustering overdoses nearby space time following seizures. We observe small, but statistically significant ( p < 0.001), effect 17.7 excess per 1000 within three weeks 250 m seizure. discuss the potential mechanism policy implications.